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  • Bernstein Is Skeptical about Macau’s Recovery

    Bernstein Is Skeptical about Macau’s Recovery

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    Finance expert Bernstein has once again commented on the situation of Macau’s gambling market. This time, the firm’s analysts discussed the special administrative region’s slight daily revenue growth.

    Umansky and Yang Don’t Buy the Optimism

    Vitaly Umansky and Shirley Yang, two finance experts at Bernstein, explained that during September’s first four days, Macau’s gross gaming revenue increased by 12% week-on-week. According to official data, the region earned an average of $11 million a day, which also represents a 25% increase from August’s average daily earnings.

    Despite the favorable results, the Bernstein specialists believe it is still too early to be optimistic about Macau. While the sector did earn more money for the last few days, these numbers are still dramatically lower than Macau’s daily average in September 2019 and in September 2021. In addition, it is not certain whether the daily average will remain the same throughout the month.  

    The Mandatory Quarantine Will Continue Hurting Travel

    Another cause for hope is Macau’s decision to reopen its borders to foreign visitors. The recent COVID-19 outbreak forced the region to close its borders and deal with the problem, which ended up hurting local GGR. However, visitors from 41 countries can once again visit China’s special administrative region now.

    Despite the positive news, Bernstein’s analysts once again remained reserved about the news. Umansky and Yang explained that a sharp tourism boost is highly unlikely considering that foreign visitors must do seven-day quarantine once they land in Macau. This will surely discourage many people from visiting Macau for gambling tourism and, according to the two experts. To make matters worse, Bernstein doesn’t believe Macau will lift this requirement anytime soon.  

    In addition, the flow of tourists from mainland China also remains restricted because the country continues to struggle with various local COVID-19 outbreaks.

    Finally, the two analysts said that the lockdowns will continue to present a problem to Macau’s gaming industry. The experts noted that Macau’s GGR will truly recover only after travel restrictions have been reduced or fully lifted. When this happens will depend on China’s ability to deal with COVID-19.

    Concessionaires Continue to Struggle

    Macau’s gambling industry has been barely hanging for the past few months. Although Bernstein previously noted that concessionaires will likely survive this crisis, their revenues have been devastated by the ongoing COVID-related troubles. Bernstein’s specialists said that September’s GGR will likely be 83% lower than September 2019’s.

    As a result of the woes, several concessionaires, such as Wynn Macau and Sands China were forced to ask their parent companies for loans.  

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  • Junket and Gaming Closures See Macau’s Unemployment Increase

    Junket and Gaming Closures See Macau’s Unemployment Increase

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    The dismantlement of mass junket operations in Macau has had an expected consequence – an increase in overall unemployment. In the first months of the junket clampdown, former employees of those businesses reported that they had experienced a steep decline in their finances and were struggling to adapt and find new jobs. This is not surprising, as junkets accounted for a hefty number of the total workforce in the Special Administrative Region.

    New Data In, Unemployment Numbers Up

    Now, the Statistics and Census Service has put the unemployment rates of residents for the period between May and July 2022 at 5.4% in the latest surveyed period. This is not necessarily due to the dismantlement of junket operations, with a more pressing worry being the immediate restrictions to Macau casinos that are put in place to fight the spread of COVID-19. Some 377,000 workers are presently in Macau and have different positions across the city’s businesses.

    Expectedly, employment in gaming and junket activities, hotels, restaurants, and other leisurely businesses saw a decline. Meanwhile, unemployed individuals hit 15,600 over the latest surveyed period. Most of these newly unemployed workers though used to work in the junket or gaming sectors. There has also been an increase in underemployed workers, who have now reached 50,600 of the total workforce.

    There is still a lack of full-scale recovery that would allow tourism to pick up. However, the Macao Government Tourism Office has already restarted promoting the SAR to mainlanders in China. In fact, the Saturday visitation reached 18,620, the highest it has been since August 3 when travel restrictions from the nearby Guangdong province were finally lifted.

    Tourism Rebounds as Concessionaires Face More Pressure

    Between August 20 and August 26, Macau saw as many as 103,162 tourists entering the SAR, with travel picking up. Macau is also on a mission to transform itself from a gambling hub (at least for Chinese citizens) to one that attracts international tourists and gamblers. The SAR is increasingly looking to pull away from asking Chinese visitors to spend their money on games of chance.

    But then again, concessionaires would need to still reach a minimum revenue threshold as outlined by the administration. While skilled laborers may be readily available on the market, Macau’s six concessionaires will have to come up with a way to attract more tourists while navigating the vagaries of Beijing, which is determined to uphold a zero-COVID-19 policy. The “Macau Week” promotion on the mainland should help bring more tourists happily, but Macau should also tread carefully for the aforementioned reasons.

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